Attacks on cargo ships near Romania and Bulgaria are widening the maritime conflict between Russia and Ukraine and testing NATO’s response in the Black Sea. After seven strikes near the two alliance members in October, NATO said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to reinforce its eastern flank. Another ship was hit outside Romanian waters three days later, and a Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone the following week.
Military analysts said they believed the attacks were Russian. Shipping security firm Ambrey said a naval drone visible in footage of the latest strike resembled a Russian model. Moscow denies targeting Ukraine’s neighbours and says European governments are escalating the war by providing military aid. Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
Many of the vessels hit in October were anchored near, or travelling to and from, a Romanian canal used by Ukraine for exports. One was struck in Romanian territorial waters and eight others in the exclusive economic zones of Romania or Bulgaria. Iulia Joja of the Middle East Institute said Russia was testing Western limits, expecting a restrained response. A NATO official described Russian actions aimed at deterring support for Ukraine as a serious security threat and said the alliance’s commitment to defend its members was “ironclad.”
The official also said NATO needed affordable counter-drone systems. The alliance has committed to investing more than $40 billion in such capabilities over the next five years. Romania has called for surface-to-air interceptors and radar systems, while analysts point to a limited supply of low-cost interceptor weapons as a wider challenge for Western countries.
The attacks threaten a vital trade route for Romania, which is also home to the Neptun Deep offshore gas project. The project was approached by a naval drone in August. Bucharest has described strikes on civilian ships as systematic but has not attributed individual attacks, citing the need for forensic evidence. Bulgaria has not directly blamed Russia, though it has said some attacks appear to benefit Moscow.
The escalation comes as Washington reassesses its military presence in Europe and shifts attention towards China. The United States withdrew 1,000 troops from Romania last year. A senior Romanian official said Russia could seek to exploit the moment, while Joja said NATO had not reinforced Romania in the same way it had bolstered its presence in the Baltics and Poland.
Shipping data points to a sharp rise in attacks. Ambrey Analytics analyst Tomas Alexa said Russia and Ukraine struck 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, more than four times the 74 hit in the previous six months. Ukraine carried out 137 attacks on ships in the third quarter, compared with 92 by Russia. In October, Ambrey recorded 38 Russian strikes and five Ukrainian ones.
The disruption has also cut exports. Russian grain shipments through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov fell to 0.3 million metric tons in September, from 4.74 million a year earlier, according to Russian export data seen by Reuters. Ukraine suspended operations at its Black Sea ports in late July following Russian attacks and redirected cargo through Danube river ports and Romania. Even so, Ukrainian grain exports from ports fell to 0.81 million metric tons in September, compared with 2.1 million in the same month last year.
Turkey, which controls warship passage through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles under the Montreux Convention, has called on Russia and Ukraine to avoid further attacks. Several countries, including Egypt, Turkey and India, have urged a maritime ceasefire amid concerns over disruption to fuel and grain supplies. Russia has rejected a limited ceasefire, saying it would give Kyiv respite. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned that attention to fuel risks overlooking a looming agricultural crisis.
Sources: Investing.com News.