Morgan Stanley has downgraded Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. to Equalweight from Overweight and lowered its price target to Cdn$10.00 from Cdn$11.80. The firm said the shares could remain under pressure until at least March 2027, when Ivanhoe is expected to publish an updated mining plan.
Morgan Stanley said investors may want to see sustained operational execution before confidence in the company recovers, following about 18 months of recurring negative operational surprises. The firm revised its forecasts after Ivanhoe’s guidance and commentary following its third-quarter 2026 results.
The bank now expects adjusted EBITDA of $285 million in the fourth quarter of 2026, 19% below its previous estimate. Its full-year projections are $896 million for 2026, down 12% from the prior forecast; $1.189 billion for 2027, down 21%; and $1.591 billion for 2028, down 10%.
Morgan Stanley’s adjusted earnings-per-share estimates are $0.04 for the fourth quarter of 2026, $0.11 for 2026, $0.18 for 2027 and $0.33 for 2028.
Ivanhoe’s third-quarter results fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.04 per share, compared with a forecast of $0.0647, while revenue was $263.84 million against an estimate of $295.97 million. It also reported operational developments across its copper and zinc businesses, including adjusted EBITDA of $241 million and quarterly revenue above $1 billion at Kamoa-Kakula for the first time.
Sources: Investing.com News.