Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase Global to Underweight from Equalweight and cut its price target to $120 from $258. Coinbase shares were trading at $143.54, close to their 52-week low of $136.89, after falling 58% over the past year.
The firm reduced its revenue forecasts for 2027 and 2028 by 28% and 18%, respectively. Its adjusted EBITDA estimates for those years were lowered by 47% and 25%. Morgan Stanley’s revised 2028 EBITDA projection of $2.4 billion is 14% below its 2025 level, despite Coinbase’s broader product offering.
Morgan Stanley pointed to recent trading trends, a weaker forward revenue outlook and uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency market following the recent Binance hack. It also reduced the target EBITDA multiple applied to Coinbase from 20 times to 12 times, reflecting lower confidence in the company’s earnings outlook and limited potential for a near-term valuation increase. The firm said multiples have previously compressed toward 10 times during more challenging periods of the cycle.
The original Morgan Stanley view anticipated an earnings reset in 2026 followed by a strong recovery in 2027, supported by higher crypto prices, greater retail participation, wider product adoption and operating leverage. The firm’s revised estimates indicate less confidence in that recovery scenario.
Recent analyst views on Coinbase have been mixed. The company reported third-quarter revenue of approximately $1.22 billion, in line with estimates, and adjusted EBITDA of $333 million, above consensus. Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating with a $280 price target, while H.C. Wainwright maintained its Buy rating and a $240 target. Mizuho kept a Neutral rating but lowered its target to $145, citing trading weakness. US Tiger Securities reduced its target to $230, and Canaccord cut its target to $275 while retaining a Buy rating.
Sources: Investing.com News.