Apollo Global Management is scheduled to release its third-quarter earnings before the market opens on Tuesday. Investors will be looking for evidence that the alternative asset manager’s operating momentum remains intact as higher-rate concerns and typical third-quarter seasonal headwinds weigh on the sector.
Analysts expect earnings of $2.22 per share on revenue of $5.79 billion for the September quarter. Those estimates would represent year-over-year growth of 2.3% in earnings and 12.43% in revenue. The projected earnings figure would also be 5.2% above the $2.11 per share reported in the second quarter, when Chief Executive Marc Rowan described results across Asset Management and Retirement Services as records.
Analysts retain a Buy rating on Apollo, with an average price target of $147.55. Based on the stock’s cited price of $115.84, that target implies potential upside of 27%. However, estimates have weakened recently: earnings-per-share forecasts have fallen 2.87% over the past 60 days and 0.23% over the past week. Revenue estimates were broadly unchanged over the past week but declined 0.46% over two months.
The revisions reflect broader caution across alternative investments. UBS, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler and BMO Capital have recently reduced their price targets for Apollo, although most maintained Buy or Hold recommendations. Attention in the sector has increasingly shifted from private-credit quality to exposure to interest rates.
Interest-rate sensitivity is expected to be a key topic in the earnings discussion. RBC Capital analyst Bart Dziarski has described Apollo and Ares as among the peers best positioned for the current rate environment. RBC also expects a quieter quarter because normal third-quarter seasonality has been compounded by uncertainty surrounding rates in September.
Investors will also examine assets under management and fee-related earnings for signs that Apollo’s expansion is continuing. The company surpassed $1 trillion in assets under management during 2026, with private credit and insurance identified as major drivers. Management comments on deployment activity and fundraising could indicate whether that growth trajectory remains on track.
Private-credit performance remains another area of focus. Concerns about redemptions increased during 2026 after some private-credit funds restricted withdrawals. Apollo’s investment-grade private-credit platform, which supports its insurance business, has been an important source of growth and distinguishes the company from peers with greater exposure to direct lending.
Apollo slightly missed earnings expectations in the second quarter but delivered a significant revenue beat. It reported $11.15 billion in revenue against an estimate of $5.6 billion, a 99% surprise attributed to strong performance in both asset management and retirement services.
The stock is down 24% from its 52-week high of $153.29 and is trading closer to its annual low of $99.56. The earnings report will test whether Apollo’s scale and diversified business can withstand pressure from interest rates and seasonal softness.
Sources: Investing.com News.