News organizations across the United States are preparing to project winners in the 2026 midterm elections before every ballot has been counted. The first race calls are expected shortly after polls close in Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, followed by contests in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia at 7 p.m. In some races, an immediate projection may be possible because a large share of voting has already occurred.
Most television networks and digital outlets rely on vote-counting data from either the Associated Press or election-data firm Decision Desk HQ. The Wall Street Journal and MS NOW will use AP race calls, while Fox News and CBS News will make independent projections using AP data, exit polls, early-vote totals and proprietary statistical models.
The AP has counted votes in every US election since 1848. For the midterms, it said it would deploy more than 4,000 reporters at county election offices and polling locations, providing data to decision desks at ABC News, CBS News, Fox, CNN and NBC News. The AP projects a winner when its analysis of reported totals and the estimated number of outstanding votes shows that the trailing candidate can no longer catch up.
Decision Desk HQ gathers results from official state sources, including secretaries of state and election departments. It combines statistical analysis, modeling and expert assessment, using automated systems to monitor election websites as well as reporters in the field. The company says about 80% of its vote data is collected directly from official sites or through manual monitoring, with the remainder gathered by reporters.
DDHQ estimates the share of votes counted by comparing official returns with its projected total turnout. That estimate is refined during election night as more data becomes available. Its final projections require unanimous agreement from its team and approval from chief data scientist Scott Tranter.
Race projections can occasionally be withdrawn. DDHQ retracted a projection in the 2025 Seattle mayoral race and withdrew an earlier call in a Democratic primary for a special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District. The AP also retracted a 2018 projection in California’s 21st Congressional District after Democrat T.J. Cox moved ahead in the vote count.
Fox News’ decision desk will make its own projections for statewide races and for control of the House and Senate, using AP vote totals alongside its analysis. MS NOW will rely on AP calls and an internal review. The New York Times generally uses AP projections but independently examines competitive contests with precinct-level data and its Needle model.
Bloomberg does not make its own race calls and instead uses established third-party sources. Reuters will also cite race calls made by other news organizations. The Washington Post did not respond to requests for information about its election-night procedures.
The race-calling process is taking place amid limited public confidence in news organizations’ election reporting. An October poll for the Medill Local News Initiative and the Alliance for Trust in Media found that more than 60% of Americans had at least some confidence in news organizations to report accurate results, but only 32% expressed high confidence, with Democrats reporting more trust than Republicans.
Sources: Investing.com News.