Nate Silver describes the midterm elections as a “rock and a hard place” contest. Conditions appear favorable for Democrats to win both the House and Senate, but doing so could require achievements that have not happened in generations, including winning Texas.
Silver, founder of Silver Bulletin, says that outcome calls for a leap of faith that pollsters tend to avoid. Polls generally favor Democrats, but many professional pollsters could face criticism if the results go the other way.
In an Election Day appearance on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Silver also discusses what he sees as misconceptions about polling error, prediction markets and why he does not believe AI will replace pollsters. He outlines what he is watching as polls close.
Sources: Bloomberg Markets.