Nate Silver described the midterms as a “rock and a hard place election” in an Election Day episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. He said conditions are favorable for Democrats to win both the House and the Senate, but that outcome would depend on the party pulling off results that have not happened in generations, such as winning Texas.
Silver, founder of Silver Bulletin, said believing Democrats can achieve that requires a leap of faith that pollsters tend to resist. Polls generally favor Democrats, he added, though many professional pollsters could be embarrassed if the results do not match that outlook.
The discussion also covers what Silver sees as mistaken popular narratives about polling errors, prediction markets, why he does not believe AI will replace pollsters, and what he will watch as the polls close.
Sources: Bloomberg Markets.