The 2024 US presidential election gave prediction markets a major boost. Two years later, markets covering the 2026 midterms are attracting attention, but trading data points to a more limited expansion of the platforms beyond a handful of booming categories.
During the final week before Election Day, trading volume in US election-related markets on Kalshi was roughly on par with the equivalent period ahead of the 2024 vote, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of trading data. Kalshi is the largest prediction market.
On Polymarket, its main rival, US election trading has fallen substantially when activity on the platform’s established international exchange is combined with trading on its newer US exchange.
Sources: Bloomberg Markets.