Hillman Solutions Corp. is scheduled to release its third-quarter results after the market close on Monday. Analysts expect the Cincinnati-based hardware supplier to report earnings of $0.21 per share and revenue of $460.8 million for the quarter ended in September.
Those estimates would represent sequential gains of 22% in earnings and 4% in revenue from the second quarter, when Hillman reported $0.17 per share and $442.3 million in revenue. Revenue is projected to rise 8.5% year over year, while earnings per share are expected to fall 5.6% from the same period a year earlier.
The main issue for investors is whether Hillman’s expansion in the professional channel can continue to counter softer demand from do-it-yourself retail customers. StoneX analyst Reuben Garner maintained a Buy rating, saying the company’s professional-channel momentum could help it outperform the broader market despite flat repair and remodeling spending and ongoing challenges in housing turnover.
Investors are also expected to assess the impact of Hillman’s recent Kanebridge acquisition. Canaccord analyst Brian McNamara said the deal expands Hillman’s addressable industrial maintenance, repair and operations market to $3 billion, although the company currently serves about 3% of that opportunity. Hillman is seeking to increase its total addressable market from approximately $6.5 billion to $18 billion across retail, professional distribution and industrial segments.
Housing conditions remain a concern because of high mortgage rates and affordability pressures. McNamara’s checks at 52 customer locations found that nearly two-thirds of retail associates viewed higher mortgage rates as a negative influence on business. One established location reported a major slowdown during the quarter. At the same time, industry data showed sales growth of 8.7% and 9.8% at hardware stores and home centers in the first two quarters of 2026, respectively.
Hillman met earnings expectations in the second quarter and exceeded revenue forecasts by 2.1%, indicating continued execution despite pressure on consumer sentiment. Analysts will look for evidence that the company’s self-directed growth strategy is continuing to deliver.
Eight analysts rate the stock Buy, with an average price target of $11.75, compared with a share price of $7.80. Earnings estimates have increased 1.4% over the past week, although they remain slightly lower than two months ago, while revenue expectations have been relatively stable.
The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9, below its trailing multiple of 36.9. Stifel analysts said Hillman’s defensibility and consistent execution appear significantly undervalued at current levels.
Sources: Investing.com News.