Traders and Economists Split on BOE Rate Outlook Ahead of Expected Hike

Markets broadly expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates on Thursday, but its guidance and economic forecasts are likely to shape expectations for the gilt market’s next move.

3 Nov 2026

Traders and economists largely view a Bank of England interest-rate increase on Thursday as a near certainty. Their disagreement is over what the central bank will do afterward, leaving the policy makers’ comments and forecasts for growth and inflation in focus.

UK bonds outperformed their peers on Monday after diplomatic moves in the Middle East pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns. The reaction to the start of US midterm voting could bring further volatility, while the week’s domestic focus is the BOE decision.

The UK budget had little impact on gilts, but the interest-rate announcement could make this week more consequential for the bond market. Associated company results due include earnings from Associated British Foods, the parent of Primark, and insurer Hiscox.

Sources: Bloomberg Markets.