Morgan Stanley upgraded CaixaBank SA to Overweight from Equalweight on Monday and raised its price target from €13.80 to €14.00. The firm said the bank’s recent share-price decline could represent a buying opportunity.
CaixaBank shares have fallen 15% from recent highs amid a sell-off in sovereign bonds, concerns about deposit competition and earnings risks. The stock was trading at $4.12, around 21% below its 52-week high of $5.21.
Morgan Stanley expects deposit volumes to recover after declining in the third quarter. The firm forecasts growth of 3% to 4% in the coming months, helped by the normalization of rate conditions.
According to the investment bank, the recovery in deposits and the maturity of €13.3 billion in negative-yielding swaps during the first quarter of 2027 could support net interest income growth of 17% in 2027 and 9% in 2028.
Average deposit yields in Spain increased by 7.5 basis points quarter over quarter, compared with a 28-basis-point rise in Euribor. Morgan Stanley described this as a normalized pass-through. The highest one-year term-deposit offers in Spain are approximately 3%, in line with the interest-rate outlook.
CaixaBank’s liquidity coverage ratio stands at 193%, which Morgan Stanley said places the bank among Europe’s strongest on this measure. The firm also said CaixaBank’s mass-market franchise does not face a funding squeeze risk.
Sources: Investing.com News.