Brent oil was trading at USD 104.68 on November 2, testing support around its 200-day simple moving average at USD 105.02. The level is viewed as a potential area for a rebound, although the broader technical structure has turned decisively bearish after the price moved below the Ichimoku cloud and SuperTrend indicators.
Momentum indicators also favored sellers. The MACD line stood at -1.08, below its -0.23 signal line, while the SuperTrend indicator pointed down at USD 110.66. The price was below the Ichimoku cloud, which extended from USD 108.78 to USD 110.36, and a bearish Marubozu candlestick was identified at the current price level.
Some signals suggested that a short-term recovery remains possible. The relative strength index was 31.86, approaching oversold territory, and Brent was trading below the lower Bollinger Band at USD 105.44. However, the analysis also identified high trading volume, a previous bearish RSI divergence and a completed double-top pattern around USD 117.45.
The main bearish scenario focuses on a possible continuation toward USD 102.40, the cited 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Further downside targets were placed at USD 97.80 and USD 93.10, corresponding to the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. The analysis identified the USD 108.50–110.50 area as a potential resistance zone, where the Ichimoku cloud, the 20-day average and SuperTrend converge.
A bullish alternative would require Brent to hold the 200-day average and rebound. In that case, the analysis highlighted USD 106.50 after a recovery above VWAP as a more conservative entry area, with potential targets at USD 109.50, USD 111.00 and USD 115.00. This scenario was assigned lower confidence because it would involve buying against strong bearish momentum.
The analysis marked USD 110.70 as the bullish invalidation level and USD 102.40 as the bearish invalidation level. It also warned of a potential bull trap around USD 106.50 and identified the USD 104.00–108.00 range as a no-trade zone because of the conflicting support and resistance signals.
Sources: Investing.com News.