Bitcoin is testing support within an active descending channel after breaking down from the $80,000 distribution zone. The cryptocurrency was quoted at $78,146.65, while the latest analysis identified the $76,313.74 swing low as a key level for determining whether the correction deepens.
Market structure remains tilted to the downside. The SuperTrend indicator places resistance at $80,041.91, and the moving averages are aligned bearishly, with the price below the 20-, 50- and 200-period simple moving averages. Bitcoin is also below the Ichimoku cloud, which extends from $78,599.32 to $79,166.38 and represents an area of overhead resistance.
There are, however, early signs of a possible short-term recovery. The MACD shows a bullish momentum crossover, while the RSI is at 45.17 after recovering from oversold conditions. The analysis also points to bullish RSI divergence and notes that price is holding above the recent swing low, potentially forming a higher-low base. A doji at $78,146.65 signals indecision around current support.
The descending channel is considered 60% complete, with support near $76,313 and resistance around $80,000. The analysis places a potential long zone between $76,300 and $77,000, where recent swing-low support and Fibonacci levels converge. The area between $77,000 and $79,600 is classified as a no-trade zone because of the expected price congestion.
On the upside, the $79,600-$80,041 region combines moving-average, SuperTrend and Ichimoku resistance. A sustained move above $80,041 could challenge $82,600 and then $84,500. Conversely, a failure of the $76,313 swing low could expose the $74,958 level, identified as the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
The analysis considers a bearish setup near $79,600, provided a reversal candle appears close to resistance, while a more conservative bearish entry would require a five-hour close below $76,300. A bullish scenario would require either a sustained hold near current support or a five-hour close above $80,100. The primary risk remains a continuation of the broader downtrend and a possible bull trap around $80,041.
Sources: Investing.com News.